Analysis of latest tungsten market

After China’s spot tungsten concentrate price fell below a level widely considered to be the break-even point for most producers in the country, many in the market has expected the price to bottom up.

But the price has defied this expectation and continues on a downward trend, most recently reaching its lowest since July 2017. Some in the market pointed to an abundance of supply as the reason behind the price’s persistent weakness, stating that the dynamic will likely continue in the short term.

Around 20 of China’s approximately 39 smelters have been temporarily shut, with the remaining APT smelters operating at an average production rate of just 49%, according to market sources. But some in the market are still skeptical that these cuts are sufficient to boost China’s APT price in the near term.

APT producers have had to reduce production due to a lack of new orders, which indicates a lack of demand for APT. This means that the market has excess capacity at the moment. The point at which demand exceeds supply has not yet come. In the short term, APT price would continue to decline.